War – What Is It Good For?

Unexpectedly – or maybe not so much these days – the world again shifted overnight.

An intrusive war has been ongoing for three years in Ukraine, and Gaza has been under siege since October 2023, with part of Lebanon also affected. Now, with some fuzzy warning signs, an initially secretive invasion is now raging in Iran and spreading to other Middle Eastern countries. 

What about tourism?

Perhaps you, like me, knew of people in the broad Middle East vicinity and beyond, forced to scurry - not easily - to return home, whether to the U.S. or elsewhere. Air service was the first and hardest-hit sector; unlike for others, this sector has tentacles, and therefore creates and experiences significant repercussions across the globe when impacted.

Skift Research analysis reveals that global travel relies heavily on just three Middle East-based airlines. Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways link the Middle East to/from Europe, Asia, and Africa. Their hub-and-spoke networks in Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi annually serve millions of air passengers across continents. Geopolitical shocks, notably the current war in Iran, expose the risks of such concentration, with unexpected and unplanned upheaval quickly rippling worldwide.

Virginia Tech hospitality and tourism professor Nancy McGehee reported that travelers are affected everywhere;  “This is not a short-term issue; the disruptions aren’t going to go away soon. And even if you aren’t headed toward the Middle East, you can be impacted [….] This absolutely has ripple effects beyond the affected regions.”  She notes that “Traveling will cost you more. Airspace closures and no-fly zones leave travelers with few options, and rerouting around no-fly/no-sail zones takes more fuel, which can impact prices. The response in terms of oil prices from Saudi Arabia and other major oil-producing countries will affect everyone’s travel costs.”

As well, Virginia Tech hospitality and tourism professor Mahmood Khan commented that “The biggest culprit is the fear of the unknown and the uncertainty in an unfamiliar location and circumstance. Getting stranded in an unknown city is very unsettling. For a tired traveler, the worst situation is when they do not know how and when they will be able to proceed to their destination.” 

According to British Travel News Europe, “as airlines deal with the operational challenges of the ongoing war in the region, the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) estimates that the conflict is costing the tourism sector $600 million per day in lost international visitor spending… and lost demand.”  The WTTC notes that the Middle East accounts for 5% of global international arrivals and 14% of global international transit traffic.

While some, like Gloria Guevara, WTTC’s president and CEO, are optimistic, saying that “the travel sector was “resilient” and “can recover quickly” once the conflict ends,” others are more realistic, such as Olivier Jankovec, director general of airports’ association ACI Europe, who said “ the war was “upending traffic forecasts” for 2026, and made the “outlook highly uncertain for now.”

Beyond Air Service – War’s Many Impacts on Tourism

We know war’s impacts on tourism are multifaceted. Uncertainty leads to adjustment; existing travel patterns are disrupted. Travelers themselves alter itineraries, changing, postponing, or even canceling plans depending on the conflict's depth, breadth, and duration. Further down the travel, economic, and service pipeline, the effects can trickle down to lodging, other forms of transportation, and other sectors.  

An excellent, in-depth article by Tourism Embassy  (summarized below) notes that tourism is particularly affected, as an industry built on the foundations of peace, stability, and the appeal of exploration. There are economic and cultural risks, alongside resilience and the potential for recovery of war-stricken communities (more on that in the next section on potential positive outcomes).

Media

Global media broadcasts images and stories of war in real time worldwide. As information reaches wider audiences, public perception of affected regions can shift significantly — and not always for the better.

The tourism industry, which largely depends on how a destination is perceived, can find itself in free fall when that perception sours. Tourists are inherently risk-averse when it comes to instability and danger. As media reports of conflict emerge, perceptions form that an entire country (or region) is under siege, leading to a swift decline in tourist arrivals, straining hotels, tour operators, and local businesses, and significantly diminishing tourism revenues.

Economic Issues

Economic ramifications extend beyond the direct impact on tourism. Countries interconnected through global trade and investment are vulnerable to economic and stability fluctuations due to war.  The economic fallout can affect air travel routes, international hotel operations, and investment in regional infrastructure. One nation's tourism sector can influence economic outcomes across borders, underscoring the widespread implications of conflict in our globally connected economy.

Long-Term Economic Impacts

Tourism doesn't just dip during conflict — the economic damage runs deep and can take decades to fully surface. Damaged or destroyed key attractions and tourist sites can significantly detract from the destination’s visual and cultural appeal, deterring visitation after conflict and hindering the destination's recovery for years to come; rebuilding and restoring attractions and historical/cultural sites often require extensive time, investment, and expertise.

Lowered visitor volume in the war-torn areas causes job losses across tourism and related economic sectors. From guides and hospitality to transport and retail employees, disruption of the vast ecosystem supporting (and supported by) tourist activities can lead to widespread (and lengthy) unemployment and reduced spending by workers in that economy.

Social and Cultural Impacts

Moreover, the damage to cultural heritage sites—a crucial component of a destination’s identity—carries consequences beyond mere economics. The cultural heritage of a region encapsulates its history, traditions, and the very essence of its people’s way of life. When such sites are lost or damaged, the cultural fabric of the community suffers, dampening the cultural and heritage travel that many regions rely on for economic stability and the experiences visitors seek.

Even when peace is restored, a destination perceived as a former war zone can linger in public memory, further delaying tourism recovery. Hence, both short- and long-term impacts of war on tourism include economic effects and the deeply entwined social and cultural resilience of affected areas.

For many areas, tourism is more than an industry; it is the backbone of daily life. When it stops, the effects ripple quickly: lost income fractures community cohesion, morale erodes, and the social fabric begins to fray. The cultural losses can be just as severe. Traditions and celebrations that once drew visitors and gave communities their identity and pride slip away and may disappear when no one comes to experience them.

Positive Outcomes for Tourism from or After Wars

Amid this situation (AKA, “fog of war”), it’s hard to imagine that war may offer positive outcomes for tourism beyond the immediate uncertainty and disruption.

I’ve often said that some of today’s most popular visitor destinations are in countries where we were at war, notably Germany, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Cambodia. People are curious, and after a war ends, interest piques in seeing and learning about the area beyond the headlines of the former war.  Visitors may also want to help support the country’s recovery through tourist spending.  Perhaps Ukraine, and even Iran, can become post-war visitor destinations. 

Additionally, wars can encourage the development of specialized "dark tourism" or battlefield sites, infrastructure modernization, and increased economic reliance on peace. After immense destruction, peace can foster long-term regeneration by promoting “solidarity” tourism, boosting regional security, and promoting reconciliation. 

Key positive outcomes for tourism from or after wars include:

• Battlefields and Dark Tourism: Sites of conflict often become historical or educational tourist destinations (e.g., Normandy, Gallipoli), attracting visitors interested in history and remembrance.

  
  

• Infrastructure Development: Post-war reconstruction can lead to modernized airports, roads, and telecommunications, enhancing the destination's long-term tourism competitiveness.

  
  

• Solidarity and Resilience Tourism: "Solidarity tourism" initiatives can help revive areas by attracting visitors who wish to support the local economy, while also providing mental health benefits through emotional connection.

  
  

• Increased Value on Peace: Tourism becomes a powerful incentive for stability; communities that benefit from tourism are more likely to support peaceful resolutions.

  
  

• Rebranding and Rebirth: Destinations can completely rebrand, shifting from a reputation of conflict to one of resilience, such as Rwanda's transformation into a premier eco-tourism destination.

  
  

• Diversification of Markets: Forced diversification of tourism offerings can reduce a country's vulnerability to future economic or security shocks. 

  
  

Conclusion

This article has aimed to provide context for the economic and cultural toll that conflict takes on tourism, using the evolving situation in the Middle East as a current example of the interrelationship between war and tourism.  

As circumstances continue to change, the observations offered here should be read as a starting point rather than a final word. Revisiting this analysis over time will reveal what holds up — and what falls short.

In any event, we must keep in mind that tourism is an important bridge for peacebuilding through on-site exchanges with local cultures and peoples. War-torn places can subsequently rebound, often with the help of a restored and engaged visitor market.