top of page

The Trump Impact on Tourism: Part 2 Looking Ahead


This article, the second in a two-part series, examines the anticipated impact of the Trump administration on domestic tourism over the next two years. Part 1 looked back on Trump's last term.


Building on the analysis of Trump's first term, it evaluates the potential influence of his policies on economic, regulatory, cultural, and consumer dynamics within the tourism sector. It also outlines strategies for Destination Marketing Organizations (DMOs) to navigate these changes effectively.


By applying scenario thinking and proactive strategies in their situations and destinations, DMOs can address challenges and leverage opportunities in the evolving tourism landscape under Trump’s policies, ensuring resilience and appeal to travelers.


Key Factors Influencing Domestic Tourism


  1. Economic Policies: Potential tax cuts and infrastructure investments could enhance disposable income and accessibility, encouraging domestic travel.


  2. Regulatory Environment: Shifts in travel restrictions and business regulations may influence travel patterns and the hospitality sector.


  3. Political Policies: These impact international perceptions of the United States and interest in traveling there. Political perception can also impact state-to-state or destination-to-destination travel. 


  4. Cultural Climate: Political divisiveness, social issues, and safety concerns could impact travelers’ choices.


  5. Consumer Behavior: Changing economic conditions and focusing on local experiences may shift travel priorities.


  6. Environmental Policies: The administration's stance on sustainability could influence tourism development and marketing.


  7. Health Policies: The potential response to new viruses and transmittable diseases like bird flu could impact domestic and international travel.


As DMOs assess the anticipated impacts of Donald Trump's presidency on domestic tourism over the next two years, here are some potential factors to consider:


1. Economic Policies


Tax Cuts and Economic Growth: If tax cuts lead to increased disposable income for consumers, it may boost domestic travel as people have more money to spend on vacations and leisure activities.


2. Regulatory Environment


Travel Restrictions: Travel patterns could shift depending on immigration policies and international relations. If international travel becomes more complicated or restricted, some travelers may opt for domestic tourism instead.


Business Regulations: Business regulations will most likely be curtailed. Depending on the business, location, and other factors, these changes could impact the tourism and hospitality sectors, positively or negatively, depending on the nature of those changes.


3. Marketing and Promotion


Focus on American Attractions: A strategic emphasis may be placed on promoting national parks, historical sites, and other American attractions to foster a sense of national pride and encourage local exploration. You might recall domestic tourism outpaced international tourism during Trump's first presidency.


4. Cultural Climate 


Political Climate and Social Issues: The political environment may influence public sentiment around travel and tourism. Issues such as protests, social unrest, or political divisiveness could deter some tourists from traveling domestically. Past research conducted by the Travel Analytics Group identified that visitors' perception in selecting a destination was indeed influenced to some degree by that destination's political orientation.  

 

Safety and Security: Perceptions of safety in certain regions may impact travel decisions. Tourism in those regions may decline if certain areas are perceived as unsafe due to political actions or social unrest.

 

5. Consumer Behavior


Shift in Priorities: Economic policies might lead to a change in consumer priorities. For instance, if a significant portion of the population feels economically secure, they may be more inclined to travel. The reverse is also true: If consumers think their economic situation is challenged, they will tend to scale back or reduce travel.

 

6. Environmental Policies


Sustainability Initiatives: Given Trump’s previous stance on environmental policies, it's implausible that support for sustainable tourism could emerge, impacting how domestic tourism is developed and marketed.

 

7. Health Policies


Potential Virus Outbreak Response: Ongoing health policies related to any future pandemic will significantly influence domestic tourism. Effective handling of health concerns could lead to a smooth transition, while mismanagement could have the opposite effect.

 

Overall, the impacts on domestic tourism will depend on a complex interplay of economic, cultural, and regulatory factors influenced by the Trump administration's policies. Monitoring these elements will be key to understanding the evolving landscape of domestic tourism over the next two years.

 

Scenario Thinking and Planning for Trump Policy Impacts


What is Scenario Thinking?


Scenario thinking is a strategic planning tool that involves creating and exploring multiple plausible futures based on various uncertainties, trends, and potential outcomes. Rather than attempting to predict a single future, scenario thinking equips organizations to anticipate diverse possibilities and prepare flexible strategies.


Why is Scenario Thinking Essential for Destination Marketing Organizations (DMOs)?


DMOs operate in a dynamic and unpredictable environment where political policies—such as those under Donald Trump's administration—can significantly influence tourism patterns, consumer behaviors, and marketing effectiveness. Scenario thinking enables DMOs to remain agile and resilient by systematically addressing these uncertainties.


1. Addressing Policy Impacts


Trump’s policies, such as tax reforms, travel restrictions, or infrastructure investments, can have varying implications for tourism. For example:


  • Tax cuts could boost disposable income, increasing domestic travel.

  • Travel restrictions could deter international tourism while boosting domestic alternatives.


Using scenario thinking, DMOs can anticipate these divergent outcomes and prepare targeted responses.


2. Enhancing Strategic Agility


Scenario thinking allows DMOs to develop proactive strategies rather than reactive measures. For instance, if infrastructure investments improve accessibility, a DMO might prioritize campaigns for lesser-known destinations to leverage increased traffic.


3. Building Resilience in Marketing


In uncertain times, rigid marketing plans can fail. Scenario thinking helps DMOs create adaptable campaigns:


  • A campaign emphasizing affordability could address both economic growth and economic downturn scenarios.

  • Messaging focused on safety could resonate in both politically stable and unstable scenarios.


4. Engaging Stakeholders


Scenario thinking encourages stakeholder collaboration, including government bodies, local businesses, and community members. Exploring possible futures together fosters alignment and ensures that all parties are prepared for changes in tourism demand or operational challenges.


5. Mitigating Risks


Political and cultural shifts under Trump’s administration—such as heightened social polarization or evolving immigration policies—could create risks for tourism. Scenario thinking equips DMOs to identify potential threats (ex: negative international perception or reduced international travel) and mitigate them with proactive measures (ex: promoting domestic travel or leveraging local pride).


6. Exploring Opportunities


While risks abound, Trump's policies may also present unexpected opportunities:


  • Infrastructure improvements could lead to new tourism corridors.

  • Shifts in travel patterns may bring untapped visitor demographics.


Scenario thinking enables DMOs to uncover these possibilities and position themselves to capitalize on them.


Scenario thinking is essential for DMOs navigating the complexities of Trump-era policies and their potential impact on tourism. By embracing this approach, DMOs can proactively address uncertainties, craft resilient strategies, and maintain a competitive edge in an ever-changing tourism landscape. This readiness ensures they can thrive regardless of which scenario becomes a reality.


DMO Strategies


Given the potential changes to the tourism industry brought about by the Trump administration, a DMO can adopt several strategies to navigate this landscape effectively.


Focus on Domestic Tourism


Capture the essence of local travel by


  • Promoting Local Gems: Launch campaigns spotlighting unique attractions, experiences, and events. Inspire travelers to rediscover hidden treasures close to home.

  • Partnering with Locals: Collaborate with hotels, restaurants, and attractions to craft exclusive packages that entice residents and nearby travelers to explore.


Leverage Economic Opportunities


Turn financial trends into travel opportunities through


  • Showcasing Affordability: Position your destination as a cost-effective getaway, significantly as disposable incomes rise.

  • Supporting Local Economies: Emphasize the impact of tourism on local jobs and businesses, appealing to travelers eager to make a difference.


Enhance Visitor Experience


Make every visit unforgettable by


  • Building Better Access: Work with local governments to improve infrastructure, from roads to hospitality services.

  • Delivering Excellence: Offer customer service training to elevate the quality of every visitor interaction.


Adapt to Regulatory Changes


Stay ahead of the curve by


  • Being Transparent: Share updates on travel regulations and safety measures with stakeholders and visitors.

  • Championing Tourism Policies: Advocate for government initiatives that boost tourism, such as increased funding or infrastructure enhancements.


Emphasize Safety and Security


Reassure and inspire confidence by


  • Highlighting Safety Standards: Promote robust health and safety protocols to encourage visitor trust.

  • Preparing for Crises: Develop a plan to address and communicate safety concerns swiftly.


Diverse Marketing Approaches


Reach more travelers in new ways by


  • Personalizing Messages: Craft campaigns tailored to diverse audiences—families, adventurers, or culture enthusiasts.

  • Dominating Digital Spaces: Harness social media, influencers, and online tools to captivate and convert potential visitors.


Cultural and Community Engagement


Celebrate what makes your destination unique by


  • Spotlighting Local Culture: Showcase vibrant arts, traditions, and events that resonate with visitors.

  • Fostering Community Spirit: Involve residents in tourism efforts to create a welcoming and authentic atmosphere.


Sustainability Practices


Go green to stand out by


  • Leading in Sustainability: Position your destination as a champion of eco-friendly tourism practices.

  • Conserving Together: Partner with organizations to protect natural and cultural landmarks.


Monitor Trends and Feedback


Adapt and thrive through


  • Making Data Work: Use analytics to track visitor trends and refine marketing efforts.

  • Staying Nimble: Quickly adjust strategies to respond to new opportunities or challenges.


By embracing these strategies, your destination can rise above the challenges and create lasting appeal for travelers in a rapidly changing tourism landscape.

Comments


tag_footer_logo.jpg

Follow us on LinkedIn:

  • icons8-linkedin-circled-50

© 2022 by the Travel Analytics Group

bottom of page